AFM Pension Plan Slide Continues

Participants in the AFM Employers’ Pension Fund (AFM-EPF) received the annual funding notice and notice of critical status this week. Unfortunately, this year’s report is not good, and this notice does little to explain why.

Each year, pension administrators are required to evaluate their plan’s “funded percentage” as a measure of the plan’s financial capacity. The funded percentage is the actuarial value of the plan’s assets divided by the actuarial value of its liabilities. A funded percentage of 100% or higher would indicate a fully funded plan. Our plan has been in critical status since 2010, as have many plans, following the crash of 2008-2009 which greatly impacted asset values.

Two years ago, the AFM-EPF, reported a funded percentage of 85.7%. This declined to 81.6% last year, and then to 76% this year, which means that the plan presently has only 76 cents for every dollar of future benefits promised. The funded percentage is based on “actuarial” values, which means that these numbers are actually adjusted to smooth out stock market fluctuations and to discount future benefits back to today’s dollars. Also alarming is a large decline is the actual, “fair market value” of assets.

The fair market value of plan assets sat at $1,823,000,326 as of 3/31/2014, and stayed fairly level over the following year, to $1,818,080,945 as of 3/31/2015. Over the past year, however, assets declined by $114 million to $1,703,971,000, a drop of over 6%. During the most recent plan year (April 1, 2015 to March 31, 2016), the S&P 500 Index delivered a total return of 1.78%, so this wasn’t due to a terrible stock market environment.

It is also worth noting that the fair market value of assets is substantially lower than the actuarial values. As of April 1, 2015 (the most recent value made public), the actuarial value of assets was listed as $2,066,699,976, or $248 million more than the fair market value. That is a quarter billion dollars in smoothing! Over time, as we get further away from 2009, this gap should narrow. The actuarial values should eventually decline towards the fair market values – meaning that the funded percentage is unlikely to improve significantly even if the market performs strongly next year.

Over this same time period, the actuarial value of liabilities has been steadily increasing, from $2.39 billion in 2013 to $2.46 billion in 2014 and $2.53 billion in 2015. Increasing liabilities and decreasing assets are why the funded percentage has worsened.

One of the most significant changes to the plan has been dramatic reduction in the Benefit Multiplier. Put bluntly: the current participants are going to receive less than one-quarter of the benefits promised to previous beneficiaries and are going to bear the pain of the rehabilitation plan, while older participants will still receive their full benefits. Over time, the lower Benefit Multiplier should help improve the funded percentage.

The Benefit Multiplier is used to calculate a monthly payment for each $100 that has been contributed to the plan in your name. The multipliers below are all for retirement at age 65, and contributions earned in the following dates:

• Before 1/01/2004: $4.65
• Between 1/01/2004 and 4/01/2007: $3.50
• Between 4/01/2007 and 4/01/2009: $3.25
• Between 4/01/2009 and 1/01/2010: $2.00
• After 1/01/2010: $1.00

Over this time period, the monthly benefit fell from $4.65 per $100 contribution to $1.00. I have to admit, I am baffled how the old payout was ever going to work. Someone who had $100 in contributions in 2003 and retired in 2004 at age 65 would get $4.65 a month, or $55.80 a year for the rest of their life? From $100?

I studied Pension Accounting in the CFA Program, and I understand how these decisions were made. The assumptions are crucial decisions. They assume a rate of return, a number of new and retiring participants, wage and contribution growth, and even the life expectancy of the average beneficiary. Unfortunately, many of these assumptions have proved overly optimistic, not just for the AFM-EPF, but for many pension plans. The rate of return has been lower in stocks since 2000, and is going to be much lower in bonds, going forward. Participants are living longer than the mortality tables (created decades ago) predicted. Growth in contributions and inflation make what seems like high pension payments possible in the future. Unfortunately, employers in music – specifically orchestras and the recording industry – are not areas of high contribution growth either in the number of musicians employed or in covered wages.

The EPF created the Rehabilitation Plan in 2010, which the Actuaries originally thought would enable the plan to emerge from critical status by 2047. Today, they no longer believe that the rehabilitation plan will work, only that it should forestall insolvency for at least 20 years. Past 20 years, they say that it is difficult to predict. This is a troubling development, and it’s not information which was shared in the plan mailing. If you want to find this information, you have to go online and download the June 27, 2016 update to the Rehabilitation Plan. On page 9:

“Currently, Milliman does not project that the Plan will emerge from critical status. Accordingly, the objective of the Rehabilitation Plan is to take reasonable measures to forestall possible insolvency.”

What does all this mean to you?

1. The plan remains in critical status, and may worsen. The plan actuaries now believe that the rehabilitation plan will not enable to the plan to emerge from critical status. The funded status would be even worse if they used the fair market value of assets rather than the actuarial value.
2. The plan has already slashed benefits going forward, but may need to lower payouts further if they want to guarantee solvency.
3. Each year that the funded ratio declines, we are closer to the eventual possibility that the plan will be taken over by the Federal Government, via the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, or PBGC. Note that the PBGC provides a reduced benefit and has a maximum guarantee of $35.75 times the number of years of service. (For example, if you participated for 30 years, your maximum monthly benefit would be $1072.50, even if the AFM-EPF had planned to pay you $2,000 a month.)
4. Even in the best case scenario, musicians who joined the plan since 2010 will receive a small fraction of the benefits paid to those who had earnings before 2004. Newer participants had better have other sources of retirement income.
5. The conversation we are having now on the AFM-EPF, all Americans should be having about Social Security. It is also in jeopardy and will not work as originally designed. Benefits promised cannot be delivered. We must make changes, including lowering benefits, lifting the retirement age, and increasing personal savings.

I trust our AFM Leadership to take the steps to fix the EPF. As a multi-employer plan with contribution rates determined by hundreds of CBAs and union agreements throughout the country, increasing contributions further is not a feasible option. Getting the plan to be fully funded may require tough decisions about cutting benefits. If you are concerned about your retirement, whether it is next year or 35 years away, give me a call and we will create a plan for your needs and goals.